Affichage des archives de mercredi, 23 avril 2008
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2008 Apr 23 2203 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 114 publié à 2200Z le 23 Apr 2008IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 992 (N13W17) has been quiet and stable and
is a small, simple C-type sunspot group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled but after 0300Z
increased to predominantly active levels. In addition there were two
minor storm periods; the first from 0600-0900Z and the second from
1500-1800Z. ACE real-time solar wind data show a slow increase in
solar wind speeds at the beginning of the period followed by a
marked increase in speed and temperature around 0400Z. The magnetic
field observations at ACE also indicate a gradual increase as well
as an extended period of mostly southward Bz from 0200Z to about
1700Z. The signatures are consistent with a co-rotating interaction
region followed by a high speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed
remains elevated with values around 640 km/s at forecast issue time.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods for the first day (24 April) as the high speed stream
persists. Activity is expected to decline to predominantly unsettled
for the second day (25 April) and to predominantly quiet for the
third data (26 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Apr 071 Prévisionnel 24 Apr-26 Apr 070/070/070 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Apr 072
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Apr 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 015/015-010/012-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 01% |
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