Affichage des archives de dimanche, 22 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 22 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 142 publié à 2200Z le 22 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 766
(N15E62) has fully rotated onto the visible disk and it appears to
be a DAO beta spot group. Region 767 (S07E67) has also fully
rotated onto the visible disk and it appears to be a DAO beta spot
group. Both of these regions were relatively quiet during the
period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to active levels. A
brief period of minor storming was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer between 22/0000 and 0300Z. Several hours of a
sustained southward Bz preceded the storming conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may be possible with periods of sustained
southward Bz throughout the interval at the higher latitudes.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 May au 25 May
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 May 082 Prévisionnel 23 May-25 May 085/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 May 091
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 21 May 013/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 22 May 016/018 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 004/010-008/012-004/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 May au 25 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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