Affichage des archives de samedi, 7 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 08 1530 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 127 publié à 2200Z le 07 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S07W88)
produced an impulsive M1 flare at 07/0813 UTC. Region 758 (S07E10)
appears to have simplified somewhat over the past 24 hours and has
generated only a few small B and C-class flares. A new region
rotating onto the disk near NE11 has produced a few B and C-class
flares as well. Sunspots associated with this region have not yet
been reported and the region is not yet numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. B and C-class flares are possible in Regions 756 and
758, as well as the new region near N11E90. Another small M-class
flare is possible from 756.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A small Sudden Impulse was observed
at many ground locations (6 nT at Boulder) at about 07/1844 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active over the next three days
(08-10 May) due to the influence of the CME on 06 May and an
anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 May au 10 May
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 May 100 Prévisionnel 08 May-10 May 095/090/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 May 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 May 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 May 005/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 020/025-020/025-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 May au 10 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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