Affichage des archives de vendredi, 29 avril 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Apr 29 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 119 publié à 2200Z le 29 Apr 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 756
(S06E17) produced the largest flare of the period, a C1/Sf event
that occurred at 29/2041Z. White light analysis indicates there was
a decrease in sunspot area during the period. This region remains
magnetically complex with a delta structure to the south and another
apparent in the trailing central portion of the large spot. Region
757 (S05W10) underwent a slight increase in sunspot area. The CME
on the eastern limb seen in LASCO imagery appears to be from a back
sided source. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 756 continues to have the potential to produce
an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels
today. An isolated active period occurred between 29/1800 and 2100Z
due to a solar sector boundary crossing and a sustained southward
Bz.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels for 29
April with isolated active periods possible in the nighttime
sectors. Active to minor storming conditions are expected on 01 May
due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Peak solar wind speeds are expected on 02 May which may
lead to isolated periods of major storming.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Apr au 02 May
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Apr 105 Prévisionnel 30 Apr-02 May 105/105/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Apr 091
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Apr 001/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 010/012-020/020-025/040
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Apr au 02 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 35% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 20% |
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