Visualisation de l'archive de mardi 09 novembre 2004

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 314 publié à 2200Z le 09 Nov 2004

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 696 (N08W50) produced several C-class flares and at 09/1719 UTC the region produced an M8.9/2n Tenflare (1000 sfu), accompanied by Type II (1866 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 23-degree fragmented filament erupted south of the active region at the same time as the flare. The M8 flare was also accompanied by a very fast asymmetric full halo CME on LASCO imagery with a plane-of-sky speed of near 1800 km/s. Region 696 maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 698 (S09W84) produced several C-class flares during the period. Region 699 (S16E66) was numbered today. The 10 cm flux value observed today was flare enhanced.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The period began with active to major storm levels with solar wind speed elevated to 600 km/s. A 34 nT sudden impulse was observed at 09/0931 UTC, which was followed by major to severe storming and an increase of solar wind speed from 600 to 800 km/s. Another sudden impulse (46 nT) was observed at 1852 UTC and was followed by severe storm conditions to the end of the period. The GOES 10 and 12 spacecraft observed magnetopause crossings following the second sudden impulse. Solar wind speed increased from 650 to 800 km/s and Bz turned southward to 30 nT for over an hour. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 07/1910 UTC continued into the period, and the proton flux ended the period at 55 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at GOES was at high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside to quiet to active levels on 12 November.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Nov au 12 Nov
Classe M75%70%65%
Classe X20%20%15%
Proton99%25%15%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       09 Nov 141
  Prévisionnel   10 Nov-12 Nov  120/115/110
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        09 Nov 110
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 08 Nov  116/189
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  085/100
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  030/040-045/050-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Nov au 12 Nov
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif35%40%30%
Tempête mineure25%35%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère20%25%10%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif45%30%45%
Tempête mineure30%40%25%
Tempête majeure/sévère20%30%10%

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