Affichage des archives de samedi, 10 avril 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Apr 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 101 publié à 2200Z le 10 Apr 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 588 (S15W38)
contains the only sunspots on the visible disk. This region
maintains a reverse polarity beta magnetic configuration, but has
been quiet since producing a C2 flare and CME at 09/2040Z. No other
significant activity or changes were observed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 588.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed was in
gradual decline following yesterday's CME impact. Speed declined
from a peak near 570 km/s at 09/0505Z to near 400 km/s late in the
period. A sharp discontinuity in solar wind plasma and IMF
measurements occurred at 10/1925Z. This was likely the
interplanetary shock associated with the C7 flare and CME on 08
April. Solar wind speed following the shock ranged from 500 to 540
km/s, but the IMF BZ was mostly northward. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this
period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Occasional active periods are
expected on 11 April following today's CME arrival. Updated LASCO
imagery reveal another Earth-directed CME associated with
yesterday's C2 flare at 09/2040Z. A geomagnetic response is likely
on 12 April, but the disturbance should be limited to occasional
active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
13 April.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
| Classe M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 Apr 088 Prévisionnel 11 Apr-13 Apr 090/095/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 Apr 109
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/016 Estimé Afr/Ap 10 Apr 015/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 020/020-010/015-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Apr au 13 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 01% |
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