Affichage des archives de mercredi, 21 janvier 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jan 21 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 021 publié à 2200Z le 21 Jan 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Flare
activity was sparse, although Region 543 (S16W21) produced a C2/Sf
that occurred at 21/0036Z. A slight decay was seen in this region
since yesterday. Region 540 (S14W35) lost the delta structure in
the trailing position of spot cluster overnight. Region 542
(N10W16) underwent no significant changes. Region 544 (N08W04)
decayed slightly in penumbral coverage during the period. All
spotted regions retain their beta-gamma magnetic features. A 28
degree disappearing solar filament was observed on SXI and SOHO/EIT
imagery near 21/1200Z. LASCO imagery is inconclusive at this time
but initial C2 data indicates there is a resulting CME from this
activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated
periods of major storm conditions are possible with the onset of the
anticipated shock passage, due early on 22 Jan; resulting from the
long duration C-flare that occurred late on 19 Jan. Unsettled to
active levels are expected on 23 Jan. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions should return by 24 Jan.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 Jan au 24 Jan
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 21 Jan 130 Prévisionnel 22 Jan-24 Jan 130/130/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 21 Jan 137
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 20 Jan 011/016 Estimé Afr/Ap 21 Jan 010/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 030/045-015/025-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 Jan au 24 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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