Affichage des archives de mardi, 25 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 329 publié à 2200Z le 25 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional low C-class activity
was observed in Regions 508 (S16W06) and 510 (S22E50). Region 508
continues to slowly decay, but still maintains moderate complexity.
Region 501 (N04W85), which produced several M-class flares early in
its rotation across the visible disk, is making a quiet exit around
the west limb. Region 507 (N09W14) maintains considerable size and
complexity, but was quiet again this period. A weak delta
configuration is still evident in this region. New Regions 511
(S14E24) and 512 (N06E31) were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 507 and 508, though relatively quiet over the
past several days, still maintain potential for isolated M-class
activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods. The disturbed periods are due to a moderate high speed
solar wind stream from a well positioned coronal hole. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The most disturbed periods are expected on 26
November due to high speed coronal hole flow. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 27 and 28 November, with
occasional high latitude active periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Nov au 28 Nov
| Classe M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Nov 171 Prévisionnel 26 Nov-28 Nov 170/160/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Nov 133
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Nov 007/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Nov 015/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Nov au 28 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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