Affichage des archives de lundi, 17 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 321 publié à 2200Z le 17 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N04E22)
has generated two M-class flares, an M1 x-ray event at 17/0134Z, and
an M4/1n event at 17/0905Z. The second event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection measured form the
LASCO coronagraph with an estimated speed of 1085 km/s. This region
underwent little change over the period and retains a beta-gamma
magnetic structure. Region 505 (S22E58) was newly numbered to day.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Region 501 will continue to
harbor a threat for M-class activity. Old active Regions 486 and
488 will be returning late in the period, and pose an increased
threat for M-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. The
favorably positioned coronal hole continued to cause high solar wind
speeds, and the accompanying southward Bz of the interplanetary
magnetic field, have kept the geomagnetic field activity at elevated
levels throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the
next two days. The coronal hole will pass from geoeffective
position, and the solar wind speeds should subside. On day three
(possibly late on day two) a glancing blow from the coronal mass
ejection that occurred on 17 Nov at 0917Z is anticipated, elevating
activity to periods of minor storm levels.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Nov au 20 Nov
| Classe M | 50% | 55% | 55% |
| Classe X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Nov 121 Prévisionnel 18 Nov-20 Nov 135/155/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Nov 128
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Nov 032/035 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Nov 028/037 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 012/020-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Nov au 20 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 10% |
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