Affichage des archives de dimanche, 16 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 320 publié à 2200Z le 16 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35)
produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region
continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little
threat of major flare. Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488
are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and
intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance.
Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate
last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares
throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous
rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential
even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very
small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A
favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in
excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field
variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to
minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole
which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to
be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Nov au 19 Nov
| Classe M | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Nov 104 Prévisionnel 17 Nov-19 Nov 105/125/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Nov 128
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Nov 021/040 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Nov 025/032 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 025/035-020/030-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Nov au 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 25% | 20% |
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