Affichage des archives de vendredi, 14 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 318 publié à 2200Z le 14 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all
from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant
penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these
areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta
magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or
decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are
about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is
a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of
Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as
well.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC
through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high
speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating
but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz),
all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days
(14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the
third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the
continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Nov au 17 Nov
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Nov 099 Prévisionnel 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Nov 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Nov 028/042 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Nov 028/036 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Nov au 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 20% | 20% |
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