Affichage des archives de vendredi, 26 septembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 269 publié à 2200Z le 26 Sep 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Sep au 29 Sep
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Sep 131 Prévisionnel 27 Sep-29 Sep 130/130/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Sep 120
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/028 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/018 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 020/030-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Sep au 29 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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