Visualisation de l'archive de jeudi 19 juin 2003

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 170 publié à 2200Z le 19 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30) lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387 (N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08) produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today. Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of 24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8 x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 20 Jun au 22 Jun
Classe M50%50%50%
Classe X15%15%15%
Proton25%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       19 Jun 123
  Prévisionnel   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        19 Jun 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 20 Jun au 22 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif40%40%25%
Tempête mineure15%15%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif50%50%40%
Tempête mineure20%20%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%10%
PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

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