Affichage des archives de jeudi, 19 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 170 publié à 2200Z le 19 Jun 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Flare
activity was limited to several B-class flares. Region 386 (S07E30)
lost penumbral coverage over the period although it does retain a
delta magnetic structure in the dominant lead spot. Region 387
(N18E49) grew in both penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity
since yesterday, a gamma structure is now evident in the trailing
portion of the spot group. Newly numbered Region 388 (S03E08)
produced a minor B-class flare early in the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an
isolated major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active levels today.
Minor storm conditions were observed at both middle and high
latitudes between 19/0000 and 0300Z due to the influence of a
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux exceeded event threshold at 18/2050Z (reached a max of
24 pfu at 19/0450Z), ended at 19/1900Z and after careful review the
event is believed to have been the result of the M6.8 x-ray flare
from June 17. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate
levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
the interval. Minor storm conditions may exist due to a transient
passage during the first half of day one in response to the M6.8
x-ray flare from June 17.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 20 Jun au 22 Jun
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 19 Jun 123 Prévisionnel 20 Jun-22 Jun 125/125/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 19 Jun 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 18 Jun 036/054 Estimé Afr/Ap 19 Jun 023/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 20 Jun au 22 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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