Affichage des archives de lundi, 9 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 160 publié à 2200Z le 09 Jun 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W32)
produced an M4/1n event at 09/1128 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep. The SOHO/LASCO imagery also observed a CME which
accompanied this event. The CME appears to be directed toward the
northwest and not earthbound. Region 375 continues to become more
magnetically complex and maintains its delta magnetic configuration.
This region has been responsible for the majority of events of this
period. However, Region 380 (S14E42) produced several C-class
events and has increased in both white light area and sunspot count
since yesterday. New Region 381 (S18E19) was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 375 and 380 both remain capable of producing a
major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. This activity is
a result of continued coronal hole effects and the elevated solar
wind speeds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active with isolated periods
of minor storm conditions for 10 and 11 June. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 12 June as solar wind speeds should
begin to decrease.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Jun au 12 Jun
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Jun 158 Prévisionnel 10 Jun-12 Jun 155/155/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Jun 122
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Jun 021/027 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Jun 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 020/025-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Jun au 12 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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