Affichage des archives de vendredi, 6 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 157 publié à 2200Z le 06 Jun 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of numerous low level C-class events. The
main sources for the activity were Region 375 (N12E09), Region 378
(N16E57) and a new region behind east limb at about S14. Region 375
showed flux emergence and the formation of a delta configuration
during the first half of the day. There was a slight decay of flux
and sunspot area in this region during the last half of the day. New
Region 379 (S19W68) emerged on the disk.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 375 during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speeds showed a marked increase beginning around
0200 UTC and have been running from 600-700 km/s due to another
coronal hole rotating into a favorable position. So far, however,
the geomagnetic response has been mild. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and is
expected to increase to mostly active with minor storm periods for
the 2nd and 3rd days. The increase is expected as a response to a
continuation of today's high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 Jun au 09 Jun
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 Jun 126 Prévisionnel 07 Jun-09 Jun 125/125/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 Jun 123
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 Jun 009/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 Jun 013/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 Jun au 09 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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