Affichage des archives de dimanche, 25 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 145 publié à 2200Z le 25 May 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 368 (S33E37)
produced the largest event of the period, a C3.0/Sf flare that
occurred at 25/1754Z. This region exhibits a simple Hax alpha
magnetic structure. Region 365 (S08E08) has shown rapid growth
throughout the period in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity.
Late in the period this region produced its first reported flare, a
B5.2 x-ray flare occurring at 25/2036Z. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 365 has become capable of producing C-class
flares, if growth continues at this rate an isolated M-class flare
may be a possibility over the next 24-48 hours.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An
oscillating Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
allowed for two consecutive periods of minor storm conditions at
both the middle and high latitudes during local nighttime hours.
Elevated conditions are due to a high speed stream coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through the forecast
period. Minor storm conditions are possible especially at local
nighttime hours. Isolated major storm intervals are possible on day
two of the period. The elevated activity is expected in
anticipation of yet another recurrent high speed stream coronal
hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 May au 28 May
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 May 121 Prévisionnel 26 May-28 May 125/125/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 May 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 May 014/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 May 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 020/025-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 May au 28 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 50% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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