Affichage des archives de jeudi, 8 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 128 publié à 2200Z le 08 May 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few C-class flares, all from either
Region 348 (S36W90) or Region 349 (S14W99). Both of these regions
have rotated beyond the west limb. The remaining solar active
regions are small, stable, and unimpressive. GOES-12 solar x-ray
imagery continues to show a new region just behind east limb at
about N17. An 11 degree filament near S34W14 disappeared between
2145 UTC and 2224 UTC on 7 May.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight but declining chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 348 or Region 349 from behind
the west limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially at unsettled levels but has been
at active to minor storm levels since 08/0000 UTC and continuing
through the end of the reporting period (08/2100 UTC). The
geomagnetic field continues to be buffeted by a persistent high
speed solar wind stream with velocities in the 700 to 800 km/s range
and Bz values varying between -8 nT to +1 nT. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes continue to be at high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active. Solar observations indicate an
extended coronal hole structure in the southern hemisphere which is
likely to keep activity enhanced for at least the next three days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 May au 11 May
| Classe M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 May 101 Prévisionnel 09 May-11 May 095/095/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 May 128
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 May 024/036 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 May 020/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 020/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 May au 11 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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