Affichage des archives de jeudi, 1 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 121 publié à 2200Z le 01 May 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 349 (S14W06)
produced numerous C-class flares, the largest of which was a C5/Sf
flare at 01/1143Z. This region continues rapid growth and is now
over 1000 millionths area coverage in white light. Increasing
magnetic complexity was seen in the intermediate spots but the
region remains a beta-gamma spot group. Region 344 (N15W54)
continues its gradual decay phase but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. A 16 degree disappearing solar filament
lifted off the disk near N12E48 at 01/1430Z. No CME was observed
with this DSF. One new region was numbered today, Region 352
(S24E43).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 is expected to produce C-class flares and
has the potential for M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.
Elevated solar wind speeds continue to be over 600 km/s. Periods of
southward Bz combined with the elevated wind speed has produce minor
storming and one period of major storm levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to continue through day one of the period
with active to minor storm levels expected. On day two and day
three, activity should return to quiet to isolated active levels.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 May au 04 May
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 May 149 Prévisionnel 02 May-04 May 145/140/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 May 128
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Apr 034/040 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 May 035/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May 025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 May au 04 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 55% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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