Affichage des archives de mercredi, 23 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 113 publié à 2200Z le 23 Apr 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels this period.
Region 338 (N18W32) produced an M5/1n flare at 23/0106Z. Type II
(513 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 380 sfu tenflare were
associated with this event. A partial halo CME was also detected on
LASCO imagery. An M2/1f flare also occurred in this region at
23/1556Z. This complex region continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity. Region 339 (N16W84) was quite active as it
approaches the west limb. It produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5 flare at 23/1213Z. No significant changes were
observed in the remaining active regions. New Region 343 (N06E60)
was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 338 maintains potential for further M-class
activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind
speeds near 500 km/s are responsible for the disturbed periods. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Ongoing high
speed coronal hole flow will likely be enhanced by transient flow
over the next three days. Weak impact from the April 22, M2 flare
and CME are possible on day one. There is a higher probability for
CME impacts on days two and three from the M5 and associated CME
that occurred early this period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Apr 133 Prévisionnel 24 Apr-26 Apr 135/140/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Apr 126
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Apr 015/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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