Affichage des archives de mercredi, 16 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 106 publié à 2200Z le 16 Apr 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There were only two
minor B-class flares during the past 24 hours. The two spotted
regions on the disk were small, quiet, and stable. A five degree
filament near N15W51 disappeared between 1157 and 1222 UTC. An 11
degree filament near N21E29 disappeared sometime between 15/2341 and
16/1542 UTC. There did not appear to be any CME observed by
SOHO/LASCO that could be associated with either of these events.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is likely to be a slow increase in background
levels with the addition of new regions which are now visible in
GOES Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor to major storm period from 0900-1200 UTC and a
minor storm period at high latitudes from 1800-2100 UTC. The
coronal-hole induced high speed solar wind flow continues. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 24 hours as the current
disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to active is expected
on the second day with a return to unsettled levels by the third
day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Apr au 19 Apr
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Apr 099 Prévisionnel 17 Apr-19 Apr 100/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Apr 127
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Apr 013/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Apr 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Apr au 19 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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