Affichage des archives de mardi, 1 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 091 publié à 2200Z le 01 Apr 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. There were only two
C-class flares from Regions 323 (S08W43) and 318 (S12W65).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a small chance for an isolated M-Class flare from either
Region 323 (S08W43), Region 325 (N12E14), or Region 324 (S11W08).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels, with
occasional major storming at high latitudes. The high speed stream
that began early on 30 March continued during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The high speed stream
which has impacted earth for the previous two days will pass by day
two.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Apr au 04 Apr
Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Apr 153
Prévisionnel 02 Apr-04 Apr 155/150/145
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Apr 134
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 31 Mar 015/031
Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Apr 017/015
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 010/012-010/010-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Apr au 04 Apr
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 45% | 30% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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