Affichage des archives de mardi, 25 mars 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Mar 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 084 publié à 2200Z le 25 Mar 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
largest flare of the period was a B9.1/Sf from Region 321 (N05E65)
that occurred at 25/1636Z. This region underwent penumbral growth
during the period. Region 319 (N13E27) experienced slight
development during the period and produced a lone B-class flare
early in the day. A small 6 degree disappearing filament was
observed between 25/1700 and 1800Z which was centered at N38W10.
Regions 322 (N19W72) and 323 (S07E55) were newly assigned today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event
from region 321.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels until the onset of a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole. The coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective early on the first day of the forecast period.
Predominantly active conditions are anticipated and minor storm to
major storm periods are possible through the first two days of the
interval. Unsettled to active conditions are expected by day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Mar au 28 Mar
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Mar 109 Prévisionnel 26 Mar-28 Mar 115/125/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Mar 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Mar 005/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Mar au 28 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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