Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare during the period was a long duration C4.5 event from Region 276 (S14 L-160) that occurred at 15/0810Z. LASCO/C-2 imagery (first seen at 15/0930Z) depicted a resulting CME that may have a weak Earth-directed component. Another CME was observed by LASCO earlier in the period (first seen at 14/2206Z) that appears to have been the result of a filament eruption in the northeastern quadrant of the solar disk (centered at approximately N45E30). This CME may also be Earth-directed. There was further CME activity seen in LASCO imagery which appears to have been from back-sided source regions. With exception to the aforementioned, there were only a few minor B and Cl-class flares observed from the active solar regions during the interval. New Region 288 (N12E72) was newly assigned today.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels.

The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to active levels. An isolated period of quiet conditions were seen at mid-latitudes between 14/2100 and 2400Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. Minor storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to the effects of a large recurrent coronal hole. Days two and three may experience further enhancements due to the CME activity seen today (IA)

  Observé       15 Feb 124
  Prévisionnel   16 Feb-18 Feb  125/120/120
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        15 Feb 148

  Observé Afr/Ap 14 Feb  016/019
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  015/020
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  012/020-015/020-018/030