Affichage des archives de samedi, 9 novembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Nov 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 313 publié à 2200Z le 09 Nov 2002 ::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S10W41)
produced an M4/2B flare at 09/1323 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
type II/IV radio sweeps, a 760 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, and an
apparent earth-directed CME. Otherwise only C-class flares occurred,
mostly in Region 180 but also from Region 191 (S17E63).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of energetic
flares with a slight chance of M-level activity in 191.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field became
somewhat disturbed after 09/1800 UTC in response to a shock observed
in the solar wind at about 09/1755 UTC. Further analysis of the
solar wind data since 09/2100 UTC suggests that this structure is
CME material rather than related to a high-speed stream as suggested
in the original filing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton
event began at 09/1920 UTC, following the M4 flare mentioned in Part
IA, and remains in progress. The current greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is about 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Active
conditions are expected late on 11 November in response to the
M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Nov au 12 Nov
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Nov 191 Prévisionnel 10 Nov-12 Nov 185/180/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Nov 178
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 010/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Nov au 12 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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