Affichage des archives de lundi, 4 novembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Nov 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 308 publié à 2200Z le 04 Nov 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 180 (S10E30)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C4.4/Sf flare
at 04/1823 UTC. This region has more than doubled in white-light
penumbral coverage since yesterday and produced the vast majority of
the reported flare activity today. A gamma magnetic structure
remains evident. Region 177 (N16E05) has shown slight decay today
although it remains a beta-gamma magnetic group. The largest event
seen today from this region was a C3.7/Sf flare that occurred at
04/0330 UTC. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 177 and 180 exhibit the potential
for M-class flare production.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward
and the solar wind speed was elevated throughout the period in
response to a geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with occasional minor
to major storm levels mostly at high latitudes through day two.
Mostly unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected on day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Nov 177 Prévisionnel 05 Nov-07 Nov 175/175/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Nov 176
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Nov 015/027 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Nov 018/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 012/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 15% | 10% |
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