Affichage des archives de mercredi, 16 octobre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 289 publié à 2200Z le 16 Oct 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred
at 16/0314 UTC. This region has seen steady growth in penumbral
coverage today. Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class
flares during the period. There was slight growth observed in total
number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic
structure became more apparent during the period. An optically
uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC.
There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to
determine whether a CME was associated with this event. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between
16/1800-2100 UTC. The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite
hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly
after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with
periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Oct au 19 Oct
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Oct 183 Prévisionnel 17 Oct-19 Oct 180/175/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Oct 182
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Oct 013/015 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Oct 012/014 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 010/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Oct au 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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