Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 août 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Aug 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 219 publié à 2200Z le 07 Aug 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours
due to an M1 flare at 0126 UTC from Region 57 (S09W79). This group
has continued to show surging and plage brightenings as it nears the
west limb. Region 61 (N09E28) showed steady growth during the past
24 hours and has formed a small delta configuration in the central
portion of the region. The group has only been able to produce
subflare level activity so far. Region 63 (N17E65) has rotated into
view as a moderate sized bipolar region and produced a couple
subflares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days. The most likely sources for
flare activity are Regions 57, 61, and 63.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. ACE real-time solar wind show a solar sector boundary change
at about 0800 UTC on 07 August.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a slight chance for active
levels during the next 24 hours. Enhanced activity may occur in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Conditions are
expected to be unsettled on day two and quiet to unsettled on the
third day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Aug au 10 Aug
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Aug 136 Prévisionnel 08 Aug-10 Aug 135/135/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Aug 165
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Aug 007/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/010-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Aug au 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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