Affichage des archives de samedi, 27 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 27 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 117 publié à 2200Z le 27 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C4/Sf from Region 9919 (N12E14). Other minor C-class flares
were observed in this Beta region. No significant activity or
changes were noted in the remaining active regions. The filament
eruption observed late in the last period from near S32W12 produced
a large CME, but it does not appear Earthbound. New Region 9926
(N12E26) was numbered today. This spot cluster was formerly grouped
with Region 9919, but magnetograms indicate that it is a separate
region.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Regions 9915 (N11W26) and 9919 will likely produce
C-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, but became unsettled late in
the period. Solar wind indices on ACE suggest that we are
transitioning into a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater
than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit remain elevated
following the proton event that began on 21 Apr and ended on the
26th.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods at all
latitudes due to high speed coronal hole flow. Minor storm
conditions are expected at high latitudes during local nighttime
hours. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions to return by day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 Apr au 30 Apr
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 Apr 157 Prévisionnel 28 Apr-30 Apr 160/160/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 Apr 195
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 26 Apr 002/006 Estimé Afr/Ap 27 Apr 007/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 Apr au 30 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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