Affichage des archives de mercredi, 24 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 114 publié à 2200Z le 24 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels with occasional
C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4/1n at 24/1605 UTC from
Region 9912 (N09W51). Region 9912 showed gradual decay, mostly in
its trailer spots. Region 9913 (S16W44) produced occasional
subflares, a few of which reached C-class. It showed minor growth as
well as a minor mix of polarities. Region 9914 (N04E04) showed
gradual growth, but remained simply-structured. New Region 9924
(S17W07) emerged rapidly and produced isolated subflares. It was a
relatively small D- type spot group with minor polarity mixing
throughout. New Region 9923 (S03W31) was also numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are
possible during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC
continued. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was around 24.0 PFU
and gradually decreasing as the period ended.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April
increasing to unsettled to active levels on 27 April due to
recurrent coronal hole effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end early in the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 Apr au 27 Apr
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 Apr 177 Prévisionnel 25 Apr-27 Apr 180/180/185 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 Apr 198
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 23 Apr 021/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 24 Apr 008/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 Apr au 27 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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