Affichage des archives de dimanche, 17 mars 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Mar 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 076 publié à 2200Z le 17 Mar 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Region 9871 (S18E20) produced today's biggest event, an impulsive
M4/Sf at 1931 UTC. The region appears to be growing slowly. An
additional M-class event occurred: an M1 at 1019 UTC for which there
was no optical report. Region 9866 (S09W33) is decaying gradually,
but is still the largest region on the disk. Retrospective analysis
of the CME that occurred around 15/2310 UTC shows a full halo event
with an estimated plane-of-sky speed somewhere in the 750-850 km/s
range. New Region 9873 (S17W09) emerged near the middle of the solar
disk during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days, with Regions 9866 and 9871
being the most likely sources.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV protons began to rise at the very end of the UT day
yesterday and crossed event threshold at 17/0820 UTC. The fluxes
reached a maximum of 13 PFU at 17/0850 UTC. The fluxes dropped below
threshold at 17/1230 UTC, but have been fluctuating and have been on
the increase since around 1500 UTC. It seems probable that the
current slow climb is related to the approach of an interplanetary
shock.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active to minor storm levels tomorrow in response
to the halo CME event of 15/2310 UTC. A decrease to active is
expected on the second day and a further decline to unsettled is
expected by the third day. The current trend of the 10 MeV protons
and the likely arrival of a shock in the next 12 hours all suggest
that the proton fluxes should once again cross threshold.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Mar au 20 Mar
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Mar 184 Prévisionnel 18 Mar-20 Mar 190/195/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Mar 215
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Mar 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 030/030-020/020-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Mar au 20 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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