Affichage des archives de lundi, 14 janvier 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jan 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 014 publié à 2200Z le 14 Jan 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the period was a long duration M4.4 flare, associated with an
evident CME from a source behind the southwest limb, at 14/0627 UTC.
M-class activity from regions on the visible disk included an M1/2n
from Region 9782 (N07E33) at 14/0156 UTC, and an M1/Sf from Region
9775 (S06W57) at 14/0136 UTC. The largest active region on the
visible disk, Region 9773 (N16W70), appears to be degrading somewhat
as it approaches the west limb, but maintains its moderate size and
magnetic complexity. Region 9782 and nearby Region 9785 (N11E41)
exhibited some increases in areal coverage and magnetic complexity
during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days. Isolated major flare activity
is possible from the regions discussed in Section 1A above.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. High speed stream
effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole appeared to wane
with falling solar wind velocities over the course of the period.
Particle fluxes for >10MeV protons and >2MeV electrons were
enhanced, but remained below event thresholds.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled. Enhancements of
particle fluxes for >10MeV protons or >2MeV electrons could result
in above-threshold events during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Jan au 17 Jan
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Jan 229 Prévisionnel 15 Jan-17 Jan 235/240/240 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Jan 224
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Jan 010/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 007/008-007/005-010/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Jan au 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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