Affichage des archives de samedi, 1 décembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 335 publié à 2200Z le 01 Dec 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of
several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration
M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is
old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the
east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares
from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak
M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718
(S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19),
9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf
event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce
any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were
observed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715
(N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear
capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field may
become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within
the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29
November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly
unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal
hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Dec au 04 Dec
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Dec 221 Prévisionnel 02 Dec-04 Dec 225/220/220 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Dec 218
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Dec au 04 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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