Affichage des archives de jeudi, 24 mai 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 May 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 144 publié à 2200Z le 24 May 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9468 (N05E25)
produced an M1/1n flare at 24/1944Z. Minor centimetric bursts, a
Type II radio sweep (620 km/s), and a CME also accompanied this
flare. Region 9468 is a moderately complex group covering 150
millionths of white light area and produced frequent brightness
fluctuations throughout the period. A pair of long duration C1
events were observed at 24/0706Z and 24/0901Z, and were likely
associated with an impressive CME originating just behind the NE
limb. A weak Type II sweep was observed at 24/1712Z, associated with
a filament eruption and faint CME near the west limb. The largest
region on the visible disk - Region 9463 remains stable in a simple
beta configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Regions 9463
and 9468.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
The geomagnmetic field was quiet to unsettled. We have been under the
influence of a high speed coronal hole stream for almost 40 hours,
but the geomagnetic response so far has been weak.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
through days one and two. Active to minor storm conditions are
possible on day three in response to the CME at 24/1955Z.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 May au 27 May
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 May 170 Prévisionnel 25 May-27 May 165/170/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 May 168
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 23 May 008/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 24 May 008/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/008-008/010-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 May au 27 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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