Affichage des archives de mardi, 30 janvier 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Jan 30 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 030 publié à 2200Z le 30 Jan 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. The largest event of the
day was an optically uncorrelated C3 flare at 30/0055 UTC. Three
new regions were numbered today: 9330 (N24E67), 9331 (N13E27), and
9332 (N08E24). Region 9330 has produced some low-level subfaint
C-class activity as it rotated into view on the east limb. Regions
9331 and 9332 both emerged with rapid development (currently in
Dao-Beta and Cso-Beta configurations, respectively) but have yet to
produce significant flare activity.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a chance for isolated moderate-level activity from the newly
numbered regions described above, as well as Region 9321 (S06W51),
which remains the largest active region on the disk.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 29-2100Z au 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period observed during 30/0300-0600 UTC. The greater-than-10 MeV
proton event, in progress at the end of last period, ended at
30/0035 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, until the anticipated
shock arrival from the CME activity observed on January 28.
Originating event characteristics, associated proton event,
interplanetary particle data profiles from the ACE EPAM instrument,
and predictive model results are all consistent with a likely shock
passage at earth within the next day or so. Active and isolated
minor storming levels are more likely in the geomagnetic field
thereafter, on January 31 and into February 1. Diminished activity
to predominantly unsettled levels are expected by February 2.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 31 Jan au 02 Feb
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 30 Jan 160 Prévisionnel 31 Jan-02 Feb 160/155/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 30 Jan 173
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 30 Jan 004/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 020/015-012/010-007/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 31 Jan au 02 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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