Affichage des archives de samedi, 23 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 267 publié à 2200Z le 23 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
DAY WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C8 FLARE AT 22/2350 UTC. EIT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS EVENT WAS DUE TO ACTIVITY BEHIND THE NW LIMB.
ELSEWHERE, REGION 9169 (N11E04) REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN SIZE AND
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO SEVERAL LESSER
C-CLASS SUBFAINT FLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND A DISAPPEARING
11-DEGREE SOLAR FILAMENT, THOUGH WITHOUT EVIDENCE OF ANY CME
ACTIVITY OF SIGNIFICANCE. REGIONS 9166 (S11W44) AND 9167 (N14W11)
WERE ALSO SOURCES OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9169 REMAINS A LIKELY SOURCE OF ISOLATED MAJOR
FLARE ACTIVITY, AND REGION 9166 A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF MODERATE
ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE,
WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF ACTIVE LEVELS AND ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING ON DAYS TWO AND THREE, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF A
FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. MODERATE ENHANCEMENTS OF
GREATER-THAN-2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE EXPECTED
TO RECUR DURING LOCAL DAYTIME HOURS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 SEP au 26 SEP
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 SEP 225 Prévisionnel 24 SEP-26 SEP 225/225/220 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 SEP 180
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 SEP 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 SEP 007/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 SEP-26 SEP 010/010-018/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 SEP au 26 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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