Affichage des archives de samedi, 15 juillet 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Jul 15 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 197 publié à 2200Z le 15 JUL 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9077 (N18W21)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF X-RAY EVENT AT 15/0833Z. WHILE THE REGION HAS
SHOWN SOME SLIGHT DECAY IN AREA, THE NUMBER OF SUNSPOTS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE REGION HAS MAINTAINED A COMPLEX
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS ALSO OCCURRED FROM REGION 9077 AND 9085 (N14E33). A TYPE II
SWEEP OCCURRED AT 15/1433Z WITH NO X-RAY CORRELATION. THE TYPE II
SPEED WAS 788 KM/S. NEW REGION 9089 (N18E41) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9077 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER
MAJOR EVENT.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
THE SUDDEN STORM COMMENCMENT BEGAN AT 15/1440Z. THIS STORM IS
RELATED TO THE X5/3B EVENT ON 14 JULY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT HAS SO FAR REACHED A PEAK OF 24000 PFU'S AT 15/1230Z.
THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTON EVENT, STILL IN PROGRESS, HAS
DECLINED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MODERATE (8.2 PERCENT) FORBUSH
DECREASE,WAS OBSERVED ON THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITOR. THE
PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT BEGAN AT ABOUT 14/1041Z , PEAKED AT
49.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION
MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074), BEGINNING
15/1555Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15/2100Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS, AND THE HIGHER
LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS
DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO START DECREASING ON THE SECOND DAY AND PREDOMINATELY
RANGE FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 JUL au 18 JUL
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | IN PROGRESS | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 JUL 213 Prévisionnel 16 JUL-18 JUL 205/200/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 JUL 184
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL 033/035 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL 080/120 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL 100/130-050/060-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 JUL au 18 JUL
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 70% | 50% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 15% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 80% | 60% | 20% |
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