Affichage des archives de jeudi, 18 mai 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 May 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 139 publié à 2200Z le 18 MAY 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
9002 (N18E31) PRODUCED AN IMPULSIVE M2/2B FLARE AT 18/1557Z ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE
DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A LARGE REGION WITH A MIXED-POLARITY
STRUCTURE. REGION 8998 (S13E04), A MODERATE-SIZED MIXED-POLARITY
GROUP, PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES AND SHOWED GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT. REGION 8996 (S21W09) REMAINED THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE
DISK WITH AN AREA EXCEEDING 1200 MILLIONTHS AND RETAINED A
MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
NEW REGIONS 9009 (S15E68) AND 9010 (N16E74) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS OF
THE PERIOD WITH UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL
HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 MAY au 21 MAY
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 MAY 253 Prévisionnel 19 MAY-21 MAY 260/265/265 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 MAY 193
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAY 020/022 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAY 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAY-21 MAY 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 MAY au 21 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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