Affichage des archives de vendredi, 7 avril 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Apr 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 098 publié à 2200Z le 07 APR 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. ONLY SMALL C FLARES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF REGION 8948 (S14E28) ADDING
COMPLEXITY TO THIS REGION (A DELTA MAG CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED). TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION 8951 (N11E74) AND
8952 (S24E49). REGION 8951 MAY BE THE LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
REGION 8910.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8948 AND REGIONS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY RANGED FROM SEVERE STORM TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT SEVERE LEVELS (K=8) AT THE START OF THE
DAY. ACTIVITY DECREASED TO ACTIVE LEVELS BY MID DAY AND THE FIELD
IS CURRENTLY AT UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE SOLAR WIND, AS OBSERVED BY
THE ACE SPACECRAFT, SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE DISTURBANCE PRODUCING
THIS STORM HAD PASSED THE SPACECRAFT BY 0800UT. THE SOLAR WIND
SPEED STILL REMAINS ELEVATED AT 600KM/S. A MINOR FORBUSH DECREASE
IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED BY THE THULE NEUTRON MONITOR.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 APR au 10 APR
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 APR 175 Prévisionnel 08 APR-10 APR 180/185/190 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 APR 185
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 APR 034/056 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 APR 051/063 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 APR-10 APR 010/030-008/015-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 APR au 10 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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