Affichage des archives de lundi, 8 novembre 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Nov 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 312 publié à 2200Z le 08 NOV 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF FROM REGION 8759
(N13E59) AT 08/1852Z. THIS REGION HAS WHITE LIGHT AREA OF OVER 800
MILLIONTHS AND MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DELTA
CONFIGURATION IN THE TRAILER OF THIS REGION. DEPARTING REGION 8749
(S18W88) PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 08/0602Z. REGION 8760 EMERGED STEADILY
DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A C4/SN AT 08/1117Z.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE
DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGE AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OF REGION
8759 INDICATE THAT M-CLASS EVENTS ARE PROBABLE FROM THIS AREA. THE
FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS FLARES SHOULD BE EVERY 1-2 DAYS SINCE THE
REGION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GROWING. REGION 8760 SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE MORE C-CLASS EVENTS AS IT MATURES. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 8759 DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS.
THE MOST DISTURBED PERIOD WAS FROM 08/0600-1500Z. A FEW HIGH
LATITUDE SITES EXPERIENCED BRIEF SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THAT
PERIOD. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE IS CORONAL HOLE
RELATED.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN DISTURBED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MID LATITUDES CAN
EXPECT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING AND HIGH LATITUDES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MAJOR STORMING. THE CORONAL
HOLE CAUSING THIS DISTURBANCE IS QUITE WIDE AND THE HIGH SPEED
STREAM FROM IT SHOULD IMPACT THE EARTH FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 NOV au 11 NOV
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 NOV 192 Prévisionnel 09 NOV-11 NOV 190/192/194 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 NOV 156
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 NOV 020/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 NOV 022/032 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 NOV-11 NOV 020/037-020/035-018/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 NOV au 11 NOV
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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