Affichage des archives de samedi, 24 avril 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Apr 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 114 publié à 2200Z le 24 APR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT
OF THE PERIOD WAS A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM BEHIND THE NW
LIMB THAT PRODUCED A PROTON EVENT. EJECTA WAS FIRST OBSERVED AT
AROUND 24/1230Z AND THE LIKELY SOURCE WAS OLD REGION 8517 WHICH
ROTATED FROM VIEW EARLY ON 22 APRIL NEAR NORTH 20. THE REGION WAS
DEVELOPING AS IT ROTATED THE LIMB. REGION 8522 (N16E50) THOUGH
SMALL, PRODUCED THREE SUBFLARES WITH MINOR B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS. NEW
REGIONS 8523 (N32E42) AND 8524 (N22E53) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET WITH ISOLATED UNSETTLED PERIODS AT
HIGH LATITUDES. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 24/1610Z
AND IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS. THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD WAS CROSSED AT
24/1840Z AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE SLOWLY, REACHING A MAXIMUM OF 22
PFU LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO ENHANCEMENTS WERE OBSERVED YET ON THE
GREATER THAN 100 MEV FLUX AND POLAR CAP ABSORPTION WAS JUST UNDER 1
DB AT ISSUE TIME.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS. MATERIAL FROM THIS MORNING'S CME IS
NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 APR au 27 APR
| Classe M | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 APR 101 Prévisionnel 25 APR-27 APR 105/110/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 APR 129
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 APR 004/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 APR 007/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 APR-27 APR 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 APR au 27 APR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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