Affichage des archives de jeudi, 4 mars 1999
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1999 Mar 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 063 publié à 2200Z le 04 MAR 1999IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8475 (N32W22)
PRODUCED A C3/1F AT 03/2343Z AND A C3/SF AT 04/0514Z. REGION 8475
EXHIBITED SLIGHT DECAY. REGION 8476 (N18W34) GREW SLIGHTLY DURING
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, ITS RATE OF EMERGENCE SLOWED. REGION 8471
(N28W63) WAS GENERALLY STABLE.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8471, 8475, AND 8476 ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS EVENTS. THEY ALSO COULD PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT POSSIBILITY IS DECREASING.
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES ARE DUE TO RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD. ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY ELEVATE AT THAT TIME. AN
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE FLARE POTENTIAL OF THESE LONGITUDES MUST
AWAIT THEIR APPEARANCE AT THE LIMB.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. AFTER
SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DECREASED ON 03 MAR TO LESS THAN 400 KM/S,
THEY BEGAN TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY ON 04 MAR TO OVER 550 KM/S.
DENSITY REMAINED LOW INDICATING A RESURGENCE OF A CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 04/1920Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
AT PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED UPON THE CONTINUATION OF A CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING
THE EARTH FROM AN ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE SUN. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT SHOULD
REACH HIGH LEVELS EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 MAR au 07 MAR
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 MAR 144 Prévisionnel 05 MAR-07 MAR 150/158/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 MAR 143
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR 011/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR 018/018-015/015-009/009
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 MAR au 07 MAR
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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