Affichage des archives de jeudi, 6 août 1998
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1998 Aug 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 218 publié à 2200Z le 06 AUG 1998IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGIONS 8293 (S22E22) AND 8296
(N17E58) PRODUCED MOST OF THE PERIOD'S FLARES, THE LARGEST BEING IN THE
LOW C-CLASS RANGE. THE DAY'S MOST SPECTACULAR ACTIVITY OCCURRED NEAR
N14 AT EAST LIMB WHERE A SPRAY WAS OBSERVED AT APPROXIMATELY 1605Z.
THIS EVENT MEASURED C-2 IN X-RAYS, AND INCLUDED TYPES II AND IV
SWEEP. ADDITIONAL SURGING WAS SEEN NEAR N26E90, MAKING PERHAPS TWO
NEW REGIONS COMING INTO VIEW. ONE NEW REGION, 8297 (N30E73) APPEARED
AS A SINGLE MATURE SPOT.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
HOWEVER, CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN REGION 8293 MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS REGION NOW SHOWS A
BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND MAY PRODUCE MAJOR FLARES
IF THESE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION, EAST LIMB MAY PROVIDE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO STORM LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. A TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE BEGINNING AT
APPROXIMATELY 0644Z. THE MASS EJECTION WAS CHARACTERIZED BY ENHANCED
SOUTHWARD BZ OF APPROXIMATELY -20 NT FOR A FEW HOURS TO FOLLOW. A
WEAK SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED IN THE EUROPEAN SECTOR AT 0736Z,
AND SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. K INDICES
OF 8 AND 9 WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LATITUDES AND SLIGHTLY LESSER
VALUES WERE SEEN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES. THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WANED BY
1800Z TO QUIET CONDITIONS AT BOULDER. THIS CME MAY BE RELATED TO
SOLAR ACTIVITY WITH TYPES II AND IV SWEEP IN THE EARLY HOURS OF
AUGUST 1.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE WEAKENS. EPISODES OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORMING ARE POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THE NEXT DAY.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 AUG au 09 AUG
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 AUG 138 Prévisionnel 07 AUG-09 AUG 145/150/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 AUG 109
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 AUG 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG 040/070 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG 015/030-005/018-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 AUG au 09 AUG
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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