Affichage des archives de mardi, 27 mai 1997
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 1997 May 27 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 147 publié à 2200Z le 27 MAY 1997IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8045 (N02W85) PRODUCED A
C4/1F FLARE AT 0957UT. THIS GROUP SHOWED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY AND
BRIGHTNESS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
SUBFLARES IN ADDITION TO THE 1F MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. NEW REGION
8047 (N26E70) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE, STABLE BETA
SUNSPOT GROUP. REGION 8046 (S26E14) WAS QUIET AND APPEARS TO BE IN
DECAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS
X-RAY FLARE FROM REGION 8045 AS IT CROSSES THE WEST LIMB. VERY LOW
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVIAL FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM 26/2100-27/0300Z.
MOSTLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS WITH MINOR-MAJOR STORM PERIODS WERE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 0300-0900Z. ACTIVITY ABRUPTLY CEASED AT 0900Z, AND
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET SINCE THEN. WIND DATA DID NOT
SHOW AN OBVIOUS SOURCE, BUT INDICATED STEADY SOUTHWARD BZ, SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED DENSITY, AND NOMINAL VELOCITIES. THUS THE SIGNATURE WOULD
BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE PROPERTIES OF TRANSIENT PHENOMENA THAN
WITH THOSE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 MAY au 30 MAY
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 MAY 078 Prévisionnel 28 MAY-30 MAY 075/073/072 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 MAY 074
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAY 009/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAY 015/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAY-30 MAY 010/015-010/010-010/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 MAY au 30 MAY
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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