Vaata pühapäev, 10 september 2017 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2017 Sep 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 253 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Sep 2017IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X8 event observed at
10/1606Z from old Region 2673 (S09, L=119). There are currently 3
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Sep) and expected to be
very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (12 Sep) and expected to be very low with a
slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (13 Sep).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 560 km/s at 10/1015Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/1935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/2020Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1038 pfu at 10/1845Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54 pfu at 10/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 7875 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11
Sep), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Sep) and are likely
to cross threshold on day three (13 Sep).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Sepkuni 13 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 10% | 01% |
| Klass X | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 99% | 95% | 65% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 Sep 100 Prognoositud 11 Sep-13 Sep 085/083/081 90 päeva keskmine 10 Sep 081
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 007/007-010/012-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Sep kuni 13 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 40% | 60% |
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