Vaata teisipäev, 13 november 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Nov 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 318 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Nov 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1613 (S23E31) has developed a Delta magnetic configuration and
produced multiple M-class flares with associated CMEs. The largest solar
event of the period was a M6 event observed at 13/0204Z from Region
1613. Regions 1610 (S24W23) and 1611 (N12W00) have Beta Gamma magnetic
configurations. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk. No CMEs observed during the period are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
504 km/s at 13/0111Z. Total IMF reached 22.8 nT at 13/0053Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -19.5 nT at 12/2338Z. ACE data
indicated a shock arrival at 12/2216Z. A sudden impulse was observed at
12/2316Z (16 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer).
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected
to begin at active levels early on day 1 (14 Nov) as CME effects
subside. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days 1 and 2 (14, 15
Nov) due to effects from a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream. On day 3 (16 Nov), conditions are expected to return to mostly
quiet levels. Protons have a slight chance of reaching alert threshold
on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Novkuni 16 Nov
| Klass M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Nov 146 Prognoositud 14 Nov-16 Nov 150/150/160 90 päeva keskmine 13 Nov 118
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Nov 014/016 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Nov kuni 16 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 25% | 25% | 05% |
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