Vaata teisipäev, 17 jaanuar 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jan 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 017 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 Jan 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 1401
(N18E38) produced an M1/1n at 17/0453Z. The other significant spot
group, Region 1402 (N28E40), was quiet during the period. Both
regions continued their growth phase in area and magnetic complexity
and are both classified E-type Beta-Gamma groups. New Region 1406
(S23W55) emerged on the disk as a D-type group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (18 - 20 January).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed
during the past 24 hours from a high of near 500 km/s to a low of
about 400 km/s at the end of the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one and most of
day two (18 - 19 January). By late on day two and through day three
(20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This activity
is due to the anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result
of the 16 January CME.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 Jankuni 20 Jan
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 Jan 139 Prognoositud 18 Jan-20 Jan 145/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 17 Jan 144
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 004/005-006/006-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 Jan kuni 20 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
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