Vaata laupäev, 23 oktoober 2010 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2010 Oct 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 296 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Oct 2010IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E28) grew
in area and spots as well as increased in magnetic complexity. It
produced a B4 x-ray flare at 23/2011Z. The characteristics of Region
1115 (S29W36) did not change much, though it produced a B3 x-ray
flare at 26/1738Z. The leading edge of the CME from a disappearing
filament on 21 October was visible on both STEREO A and B HI1
images.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is forecast to be
predominately low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 1-3
(24-26 October).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with a period of
minor to major storming at high latitudes between 23/1200-1500Z as
the result of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds were near or
above 650 km/s throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at
high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast
to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor
storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity
is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as
well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the
aforementioned CME.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Octkuni 26 Oct
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 Oct 084 Prognoositud 24 Oct-26 Oct 084/084/084 90 päeva keskmine 23 Oct 081
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 23 Oct 012/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Oct kuni 26 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 40% | 40% | 20% |
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