Vaata neljapäev, 30 november 2006 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2006 Nov 30 2204 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 334 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Nov 2006IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class flares, all from Region 927 (N10E19).
The delta configuration reported yesterday appears to have decayed
during the past 24 hours. Region 926 (S10E09) was quiet and stable.
New Region 928 (S07W32) emerged on the disk today as a small C-type
group.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during
the past 24 hours. An initially quiet field became disturbed after
0500Z due to an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic
field. Active to minor storm levels were observed initially but
there was a strong substorm interval from 0800-1000Z which increased
the level to major storm at some mid-latitude stations and severe
storm at some high latitude sites. Conditions have been at active to
minor storm levels since 1000Z. Solar wind signatures appear to be
most consistent with a solar sector boundary crossing, which was
also seen 27 days ago during the last solar rotation. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24 hours (1
December) as the current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be
predominantly quiet for the second and third days (2-3 December).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Deckuni 03 Dec
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Nov 084 Prognoositud 01 Dec-03 Dec 085/085/085 90 päeva keskmine 30 Nov 079
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Nov 020/030 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 007/015-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Dec kuni 03 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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