Vaata neljapäev, 23 oktoober 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 296 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 Oct 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 Octkuni 26 Oct
Klass M90%90%90%
Klass X50%50%50%
Prooton25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       23 Oct 183
  Prognoositud   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  90 päeva keskmine        23 Oct 114
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 Oct kuni 26 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%40%
Väike torm40%40%30%
Suur-tõsine torm30%30%20%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%20%
Väike torm40%40%40%
Suur-tõsine torm40%40%40%

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