Vaata arhiivi pühapäev, 13 juuli 2003

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jul 13 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 194 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Jul 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class subflares. Newly assigned Region 409 (N16E66) rotated more fully into view today and was one of the most active regions. This group is currently the largest on the disk and was the source of recent flare activity observed on and near the northeast limb during the last couple of days. Region 401 (S10W31) showed some development of new spots in the central part of the group but was stable and quiet. Two additional regions were assigned today: Region 408 (N13E23), a small newly emerged group, and Region 410 (S13E63), also a small group that has just rotated into view. A thirteen degree filament located near N26W08 disappeared between 0100-0900 UTC. Post-eruption arcades were visible in SXI and EIT-195 images.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event over the next three days, with Regions 409 and 401 the most likely sources.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds remain somewhat elevated today (around 500-600 km/s), but are lower than yesterday and show an overall declining trend. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next three days. Some persistence of today's activity is expected to linger into tomorrow. It is possible that transient flow may arrive sometime during the next three days from the M3 flare of 10 July or from any of the recent filament eruptions. However, ACE EPAM data do not indicate the presence of a strong interplanetary shock at this time, making transient drivers seem less probable than previously. The onset of effects from another high speed wind stream are expected on day two or day three as a new coronal hole will be rotating into favorable position.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Julkuni 16 Jul
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       13 Jul 127
  Prognoositud   14 Jul-16 Jul  130/130/130
  90 päeva keskmine        13 Jul 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Jul  025/046
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 13 Jul  015/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  020/020-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Jul kuni 16 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%35%
Väike torm20%20%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%35%35%
Väike torm25%25%25%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%15%

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